Before we do this exercise, let’s tackle the predictions made last Nov. 24, contrasted against what actually happened.
PREDICTIONS
1. North Dakota
2. Denver
3. UMD
4. Western Michigan
5. St. Cloud State
6. Omaha
7. Colorado College
8. Miami
ACTUAL
1. North Dakota
2. St. Cloud State
3. UMD
4. Omaha
5. Denver
6. Western Michigan
7. Colorado College
8. Miami
Honestly, I didn’t do as badly as I thought. Nailed four of the eight, which should sufficiently raise expectations to an unsustainable level this go-round.
Excited to head to St. Paul on Thursday for Media Day. I’ll broadcast live 10a-11a on KDAL, joined by UMD captain Noah Cates, Omaha’s Kevin Conley, and the excellent Kevin Falness of the Wild Radio Network. It’ll be fun radio, so hopefully you can tune in.
As part of the run-up to Media Day, the NCHC Tuesday released a Preseason All-Conference Team, and Wednesday it will announce the results of its preseason media poll. As per custom, someone was kind enough to allow me a vote in the poll and for the all-league team. And in the interest of full disclosure, I’m here to discuss my votes and start ramping us up to the season openers in a couple weeks.
Let’s start with the Preseason All-Conference Team. Here’s the official word from the NCHC.
Among the 25 media voters, SCSU sophomore forward Veeti Miettinen and Western Michigan junior defenseman Ronnie Attard led the way with 22 votes each. Minnesota Duluth senior Noah Cates and Omaha senior Chayse Primeau round out the forward group with 18 and 13 votes, respectively. Joining Attard on the blue line are SCSU senior Nick Perbix and North Dakota sophomore Jake Sanderson, who each collected 13 votes to create a tie. Miami sophomore goaltender Ludvig Persson rounds out the Preseason All-NCHC Team in net, garnering 10 votes.
Miettinen (Espoo, Finland) was a Second-Team All-NCHC and NCHC All-Rookie Team selection last season, while earning NCHC Rookie of the Year. The Toronto Maple Leafs draft pick led all NCHC freshmen in scoring last season, tallying 23 points (10g, 13a) in 24 conference games. Cates (Stillwater, Minn.) and Primeau (Margate City, N.J.) were also Second-Team All-NCHC honorees a year ago. Cates, a Philadelphia Flyers draft pick, totaled 17 points (5g, 12a) in 24 conference games last year while serving as captain of the Bulldogs. Primeau racked up 23 points (9g, 14a) in 24 NCHC games for UNO.
Leading the blue line is another Flyers prospect in Attard (White Lake, Mich.), who is the lone returning First-Team All-NCHC honoree from 2020-21 and will serve as an assistant captain for WMU this year. Last season’s NCHC Offensive Defenseman of the Year led all NCHC blue liners with both eight goals and 22 points in 24 conference games. Perbix (Elk River, Minn.), a Tampa Bay Lightning draft pick, tied for second among NCHC defensemen in scoring last season with 19 points (5g, 14a) in 24 conference games en route to Second-Team All-NCHC honors. Sanderson (Whitefish, Mont.), an alternate captain for UND this year, compiled 11 points (2g, 9a) in 17 conference games as a freshman, missing seven games due to his participation for Team USA at the IIHF World Junior Championship. The Ottawa Senators first round draft pick was an NCHC All-Rookie Team honoree last year.
Persson (Hindas, Sweden) was a Second-Team All-NCHC pick and an All-Rookie Team honoree in 2020-21, starting 17 of 24 NCHC games in net for the RedHawks. He finished conference play with an NCHC-best .930 save percentage and averaged 29 saves per game, tops in the league. The Swede posted a 5-10-2 record with two shutouts in NCHC play, while compiling a 2.40 goals-against average, which was third in the conference.
Most of this was pretty easy.
MY VOTES
F – Noah Cates
F – Veeti Miettinen
F – Kobe Roth
D – Ronnie Attard
D – Jake Sanderson
G – Zach Driscoll
I voted for Miettinen and Cates up front, along with Attard and Sanderson on the back end, and they seemed like clear choices to me. Keeping Perbix off my ballot was not fun, but they only let me pick two defensemen. In my estimation, the three best players in the NCHC entering the season are likely Attard, Perbix, and Sanderson, in some order or another (they might be interchangeable, to be honest).
For the third forward spot, I considered a number of guys, including Roth, Easton Brodzinski, Primeau, Tyler Weiss, Ethen Frank, and Connor Ford (Bowling Green transfer at North Dakota). I decided on Roth because I think he’ll have a huge role on this UMD team, one that might struggle to score throughout the lineup. Roth can play with anyone, and there are a lot of guys on the roster he’s proven to have chemistry with.
In goal, the choice was Driscoll, who is more proven at this level and had comparable numbers to Persson in many more minutes (1700ish to just under 1000). Driscoll has a .920 career save percentage in 102 NCAA appearances, and he is heading into a situation at North Dakota where some high-end defensemen were lost to the pros, but the cupboard (as we’ll discuss) is far from bare. Persson was great as a freshman, and I expect he’s going to be a big part of whatever progress Chris Bergeron’s team will make this season.
******
The NCHC will announce results of the preseason media poll Wednesday. Here is how I voted, with some thoughts on each team and the reasoning for my choices.
8. Colorado College Tigers
I believe Kris Mayotte is a great choice for Colorado College. I don’t know that this is the year we see that.
The last time we saw Colorado College, the Tigers — severely depleted by COVID protocols — were giving St. Cloud State all it could handle in the first round of the NCHC playoffs at Ralph Engelstad Arena. The Tigers took a 1-0 lead on the flukiest of fluke goals, but couldn’t hold it because they couldn’t possess the puck for any measurable amount of time. CC deserved a ton of respect for showing up with such limited numbers of available players, but the result seemed inevitable, and no one was surprised that a program without a winning season since 2011-12 decided to move on from Mike Haviland.
Colorado College’s top returning forward is Hunter McCown, who had two goals and six points as a freshman last season. Top scorers Josiah Slavin, Ben Copeland, and Grant Cruikshank are all gone. Mayotte does have experience and talent on the back end. Returning on defense are guys like Bryan Yoon, Jack Millar, and Nicklas Andrews. Back in goal are Matt Vernon — who stood on his head in the SCSU game where his team was so short-handed — and big Chicago prospect Dominik Basse, who showed promise in 17 appearances last season.
7. Miami RedHawks
Miami struggled last season, finishing last and getting blown out by North Dakota in the NCHC Frozen Faceoff quarterfinals. I expect this group to be improved. Bergeron brings in six transfers, including potentially impactful defenseman Will Cullen from Bowling Green.
There are some pieces up front that I like, including Matthew Barbolini, Matt Barry, and Joe Cassetti, but scoring depth was a problem last year and may continue to be. Miami needs development from a lot of guys, and it wouldn’t hurt if transfer forwards Chase Gresock (Merrimack) and PJ Fletcher (Quinnipiac) came in and made an impact.
As already discussed, Persson has the ability to be a top goalie. If he can avoid the dreaded (and sometimes hypothetical) sophomore slump, Miami has a chance in virtually every game while it tries to develop that scoring depth.
6. Denver Pioneers
I’ll pause while you veer your car back on the highway (you definitely shouldn’t be reading a blog while you are operating a motor vehicle, just go with the joke here).
This is going to be a good team. I believe it will finish closer to the NCAA Tournament bubble than this predicted finish might make you think (don’t forget that the NCHC has already placed six teams in the NCAAs once).
But Denver has lacked scoring depth a few times in recent years. There have been years where the Pioneers had enough high-end skill to win games anyway, but I’m not convinced this is one of them. Denver scored just 67 goals in 24 games last season (only 47 of those goals came at level manpower). Throw in a team save percentage of just .890, and it’s a recipe for trouble.
Can Magnus Chrona rebound? He needs to. Can Bobby Brink bounce back and stay healthy? The high-end talent might be there for this team to overcome some deficiencies and win, thanks to guys like Carter Savoie, captain Cole Guttman, Brink, and Antti Tuomisto, among others.
If I’m horribly wrong with these predictions, it probably starts here. I’m actually regretting it more and more as I go on here.
5. Omaha Mavericks
The tough choices continue.
Omaha took a massive step forward last season, finishing fourth in the NCHC and earning a trip to the NCAA Tournament. This team might be even better.
Mike Gabinet — who has quietly done an outstanding job remaking this program in his vision — returns his top 15 point producers from last season.
Seriously.
15.
Look down the chart from last year, and the first name you see who is not back is forward Ryan Brushett, who was 16th on the team with one goal and seven points in 18 games.
The Mavericks also add Minnesota transfer Brannon McManus, who has 39 goals and 87 points in 136 career college games.
This is a team that should be good enough to make the NCAA Tournament once again. Look out.
4. North Dakota Fighting Hawks
The biggest question mark in the league, in my opinion. Brad Berry went shopping at the Transfer Portal, which was erected next to one of the highly overrated Red Pepper locations in Grand Forks. This was largely out of necessity after UND lost seven of its top eight scorers, along with all but 3:33 of the goaltending minutes played last season. Some of the departures could have been forecast, but it would be fair to suggest UND was caught off guard at least once (Jasper Weatherby was a late depart, signing with San Jose) and probably more than once.
Driscoll will take over in goal. Ford becomes a likely top-six guy for this Fighting Hawks team. Joining them are defensemen Chris Jandric (Alaska-Fairbanks) and Brady Ferner (RPI), along with forward Ashton Calder (Lake Superior State).
Berry also welcomes a(nother) talented freshman class, including Jake Schmaltz (cousin of Nick and Jordan, who were outstanding at UND) and USHL linemate Jackson Kunz.
This is a great experiment in the new realm of college sports. Can a team that brings in a bunch of transfers reap immediate results? If anyone can do it, it’s certainly North Dakota. Big-time boom/bust potential with this team.
3. Western Michigan Broncos
I’m bullish on this team, and I was before the program brought in former UMD associate coach Jason Herter in the same job there.
The talent is there. New coach Pat Ferschweiler returns the top ten scorers from last season, including talented graduate forwards Paul Washe, Ethen Frank, and Josh Passolt. The senior class includes mainstays like Drew Worrad, Cole Gallant, and Rhett Kingston (back after missing last season).
Attard might be the best player in the NCHC. If he isn’t, he’s close. Aidan Fulp, Cedric Fiedler, and Michael Joyaux are among those providing defensive depth. The Broncos bring back top goalie Brandon Bussi, who missed most of last season after suffering an injury in the pod opener, and Alex Aslanidis is also back after emerging as last season went on.
I wonder if Western has enough depth up front. The goaltending, while promising, still posted a garish .874 team save percentage. But the Broncos will be a bear to buck at home, and Lawson will be rocking if this team is even decent.
2. UMD Bulldogs
There’s a lot to like. Cates will produce more as he returns to wing. I think Miami transfer Casey Gilling will make an impact. Quinn Olson should be primed for a bounceback year after a tough sophomore campaign, at least some of which can be put on some buzzard’s luck along the way. There is more experience on UMD’s depth lines, which should lead to more production. But it might take time. Cole Koepke, Jackson Cates, and Nick Swaney all turned pro, taking 111 career goals with them.
To help matters at least a little, I think it’s fair to expect more scoring from the blue line, which produced just four goals last season (three by Connor Kelley). Wyatt Kaiser will be more involved offensively. So will Kelley.
The internal improvement should be seen, more than anywhere else, on the penalty kill. UMD has dropped from 85.7 percent in 2018-19 all the way to 75.2 percent last season. Much of the inconsistency we saw from the Bulldogs last season can be traced to the struggles here. If it gets better — and there’s no reason to think it will not — UMD will be a very dangerous team.
UMD returns all its goalie minutes as well, and should have a good competition with Zach Stejskal and Ryan Fanti. The Bulldogs have proven they know how to handle this position, and both players proved they have the talent to succeed at this level.
1. St. Cloud State Huskies
After a run to the NCAA title game last season, old friend Brett Larson returns virtually everyone for another kick at the can.
If voting in a poll like this comes down to picking the team with the fewest holes, it’s is an easy choice this time around.
St. Cloud State returns a whopping five seniors from last year’s group, including steady forwards Kevin Fitzgerald and Easton Brodzinski, defensemen Luke Jaycox and Seamus Donohue, and minutes-eating goalie David Hrenak, who was at his best during the Huskies’ playoff run.
With an eye-popping 20 players who are juniors or older, there’s no lack of experience at any position. The Huskies might not have the big-time, high-end skill they’ve had in recent years, but they make up for it with four-plus lines that can play with anyone.
Sound familiar, local fans? 🤔
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