BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s export growth slowed in the January-February period due to the week-long Lunar New Year holiday and though the data beat expectations Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has heightened uncertainty over the outlook for global trade this year.
Outbound shipments rose 16.3% in the first two months of the year from the same period a year earlier, official data showed on Monday, beating analyst expectations for a 15.0% rise, but down from 20.9% gain in December.
Imports increased 15.5%, easing from a 19.5% gain in December. That compared with a 16.5% increase forecast in a Reuters poll.
China posted a trade surplus of $115.95 billion in the same period, versus a forecast $99.50 billion surplus in the poll. That compared with December’s $94.46 billion surplus.
The customs agency publishes combined January and February trade data to smooth distortions caused by the Lunar New Year, which can fall in either month.
Factory activity normally slows considerably during the long holiday as workers return to their home towns. But for the third year in a row, many factory workers did not return home because of concerns about COVID-19, which kept factories operating.
China’s booming exports outperformed expectations for much of last year and buoyed growth in the world’s second-largest economy, but analysts expect shipments to slow eventually as an overseas surge in demand for goods eases and high costs pressure exporters.
Beijing has targeted slower economic growth of around 5.5% this year amid an uncertain global recovery and a downturn in the country’s vast property sector.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine late last month and mounting international sanctions on Moscow have raised fresh risks for the global economy, adding to months-long strains for China’s factories from worldwide supply chain snags.
Chinese exporters with exposure to Ukrainian markets have delayed shipments, while some factories with business in Russia have been waiting for payment from their clients before arranging the next shipments, factory officials and analysts told Reuters.
(Reporting by Stella Qiu, Ellen Zhang and Ryan Woo; Editing by Sam Holmes)
