(Reuters) – The labels “dove” and “hawk” have long been used by central bank watchers to describe the monetary policy leanings of policymakers, with a dove more focused on risks to the labor market and a hawk more focused on the threat of inflation.
The topsy-turvy economic environment of the coronavirus pandemic sidelined those differences, turning U.S. Federal Reserve officials at first universally dovish as they sought to provide massive accommodation to a cratering economy, and then, when inflation surged, into hawks who uniformly backed aggressive rate hikes. Now, as Fed policymakers note improvement on inflation and some cooling in the labor market but also stronger-than-expected economic growth, divisions are more evident, with more varied choices: to raise rates again, skip for now but stay poised for more later, or take an extended pause.
All 12 regional Fed presidents discuss and debate monetary policy at Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, held eight times a year, but only five cast votes at any given meeting, including the New York Fed president and four others who vote for one year at a time on a rotating schedule.
The following chart offers a stab at how officials currently stack up on their outlook for Fed policy and how to balance their goals of stable prices and full employment. The designations are based on comments and published remarks; for more on the thinking that shaped these hawk-dove designations, click on the photos in the graphic.
Dove Dovish Centrist Hawkish Hawk
Lisa Cook, Jerome Michelle
Governor, John Powell, Fed Bowman,
permanent Williams, Chair, Governor,
voter: “If New York permanent permanent
confirmed, I Fed voter: “We voter: “The
will stay President, want to see policy rate
focused on permanent convincing may need to
inflation voter: “My evidence rise further
until our job current really, that and stay
is done.” June assessment we have restrictive
21, 2023 is that we reached the for some time
are at, or appropriate to return
near, the level.” Sept inflation to
peak level 20, 2023 the FOMC’s
of the goal.” Oct 11,
target 2023
range for
the
federal
funds
rate.”
Sept. 29,
2023
Patrick Philip Christopher Loretta
Harker, Jefferson, Waller, Mester,
Philadelphia Vice Governor, Cleveland Fed
Fed President, Chair: “We permanent President,
2023 voter: are in a voter: “The 2024 voter:
“Right now, I sensitive financial “We are
think that period of markets are basically at
we’ve probably risk tightening up or near” the
done enough.” management and they are peak of the
Aug. 24, 2023 , where we going to do tightening
have to some of the campaign. Oct
balance work for 6, 2023.
the risk us… We will
of not see how those
having higher rates
tightened feed into
enough, what we do on
against policy in the
the risk coming
of policy months.” Oct
being too 11, 2023
restrictiv
e.” Oct 9,
2023
Raphael Michael Neel
Bostic, Barr, Vice Kashkari,
Atlanta Fed Chair of Minneapolis
President, Supervisio Fed
2024 voter: “I n, President,
actually don’t permanent 2023 voter:
think we need voter: “In “Today I put
to increase my view, a 40%
rates the most probability”
anymore.” Oct important on the
10, 2023 question scenario that
at this “we would
point is have to push
not the federal
whether an funds rate
additional higher,
rate potentially
increase meaningfully
is needed higher.” Sept
this year 26, 2023
or not,
but rather
how long
we will
need to
hold rates
at a
sufficient
ly
restrictiv
e level to
achieve
our
goals.”
Oct 2,
2023
Austan Lorie Logan,
Goolsbee, Dallas Fed
Chicago President,
Fed 2023 voter:
President, “If long-term
2023 interest
voter: “On rates remain
the real elevated
side I because of
feel like higher term
nothing premiums,
has there may be
happened less need to
so far raise the fed
that is funds rate.”
convincing Oct 9, 2023
evidence
that we
are off
the golden
path.” Oct
5, 2023
Mary Daly,
San Thomas
Francisco Barkin,
Fed Richmond Fed
President, President,
2024 2024 voter:
voter: “I “It’s good
would say for the Fed
now the to take some
risks of time and see
how we how the data
balance plays out.”
those Sept. 28,
things are 2023
roughly
balanced
—
over-tight
ening
versus
under-tigh
tening —
but we
still have
high
inflation
and the
labor
market’s
still
strong.”
Oct 10,
2023
Susan
Collins,
Boston Fed
President,
2025
voter:
“While we
are likely
near, and
could be
at, the
peak for
policy
rates,
further
tightening
could be
warranted
depending
on
incoming
informatio
n.” Oct
11, 2023
Note: Fed policymakers began raising interest rates in March 2022 to bring down high inflation. Their most recent policy rate hike, to a range of 5.25%-5.5%, was in July.
Most policymakers as of September expected one more rate hike by year’s end. Neither Jeff Schmid, Kansas City Fed’s president since August and a voter in 2025, nor Adriana Kugler, a permanent voter who was confirmed to the Fed Board in September, have yet made any substantive policy remarks. The St. Louis Fed has begun a search to succeed president, James Bullard, who took a job in academia; the new chief will be a 2025 voter.
(Reporting by Ann Saphir)
