Is this on?
What day is it?
Anyway, hope everyone has enjoyed this holiday season. I’m currently on the tenth of 12 straight days not going into the office, and I’ve put this off long enough. It’s time to do something that’s kind of work-related.
Thanks for reading. Plenty to get to here.
9 THOUGHTS
1. The first half did not go as hoped for the UMD men. There’s really no way to sugar-coat it, and there’s not a lot of reason to try to. You guys in the audience deserve better than that, so apologies if anything said or written during the first half went to this in your head. Wasn’t my intent.
There were positives, and we’ll touch on some of that while trying to look ahead a bit. But UMD is 5-10 overall, with just one win over a team of real quality (UMass-Lowell in October). The Bulldogs are last in Division I with a team save percentage of .873 (Miami is next-worst at .875), which offsets improving underlying stats when it comes to shot attempts and shots on goal at even strength (more on that to come as well).
(For reference, there are five NCHC teams — Western Michigan, Omaha, St. Cloud State, Colorado College, and Denver — in the top 15 of the nation in team save percentage, DU’s .919 being the lowest in that group.)
The penalty kill is worst in the NCHC at 76.1 percent (the goalies are at an .825 save percentage while short-handed, second-worst to North Dakota’s .811 among NCHC teams).
(In case you’re wondering, and I know most of you probably aren’t, the NCHC’s short-handed save percentage numbers are: St. Cloud .942, CC .933, Western .932, DU .919, Omaha .905, Miami .881, ASU .877, UMD .825, and UND .811. Thanks to the great folks at College Hockey News for the readily-available breakdowns.)
Want to see more improvement in the second half? It all starts there.
2. UMD’s goaltending drama the last weekend before break could be a blessing as we move forward. By now, you’re likely aware of what happened. Adam Gajan got hurt during the bye week over Thanksgiving weekend, rendering him unable to play at Arizona State.
With Gajan out, Klayton Knapp started the Friday game, but was injured on the Sun Devils’ fourth goal that gave them a 4-1 lead. Zach Sandy — who UMD coach Scott Sandelin has said multiple times was likely to start the Saturday game in Tempe — came on in relief and held ASU off the board as the Bulldogs furiously rallied back and tried to tie the game. Knapp warmed up and backed up Sandy on Saturday, but didn’t exactly appear comfortable in the pregame warmup.
Sandelin is hopeful that seeing both Knapp and Sandy play and play well boosts the team’s internal competition between the pipes.
“They’re both competitors,” Sandelin said of Knapp and Sandy when I asked him back on Dec. 13. “They all want the net, and there’s only one net. So this past weekend, hopefully creates a lot more competition there amongst the three for that net.
“I think that opportunity that came for Klayton when Adam got pulled, or this past weekend, is good for those guys. It’s good for our team, and I think it’s really important that we have those guys battling and that it’s no different than any position. I think it’s a good thing, and hopefully it’s going to be a great thing in the long run.”
(By the way, Sandelin was hopeful that all three goalies would be available this week, and it doesn’t appear that anything has happened to change that. No idea who will start Tuesday in Bemidji, but I figured all along there would be a chance of seeing more than one goalie start this week.)
3. Sandelin is optimistic that the team’s defensive play will continue to improve. I asked him about this on my radio show Dec. 13 (podcast is here). Here’s his full answer, only edited slightly for clarity.
“I think some of the details need to be a little bit better. I think that’s probably the biggest thing, just continue to work on some of the little detail things, whether it’s positioning, stick detail, support, and just being a little bit more engaged with checks.
“I keep going back to the goals we gave up Friday against Arizona State where we had guys near guys but not close enough. Just little things like that I think can help and just probably a little bit more aggressive in certain situations where I think we get a little too passive and give up a little too much.
“I think the structure part of it has gotten a lot better. There’s a better understanding of how we want to play. And then just cleaning up some of the details of that, I think will help us. Hopefully it’ll also help our goalies and they can make the saves they need to and not have to be put in situations like they have for part of this first half.”
4. Before the Arizona State series, I observed that UMD had cut down on the quantity of scoring chances given up, but there was still an issue with quality.
With that in mind, look at some of UMD’s underlying numbers.
–UMD’s Corsi (percentage of shots attempted by UMD in its games) is tied for 11th nationally at 53.7.
–Even-strength Corsi (self-explanatory, I hope) is tied for 15th at 53.8.
–Fenwick (percentage of unblocked shot attempts by UMD) is 12th nationally at 54.4.
–Even-strength Fenwick is also 54.4, good for 13th.
In addition, I track UMD’s even-strength shots for and against game-by-game. The improvement we’ve seen there is telling as well.
In the first five games (vs Bemidji, at Lowell for two, and home for two against Minnesota), UMD was outshot at even strength four times (Bemidji was the only game where UMD led in shots at level manpower). Lowell and Minny outshot UMD at even strength by an average of 13 shots per game.
Since the start of the Stonehill series Oct. 25, over a span of ten games, the Bulldogs have outshot foes at even strength by an average of 10 per game (288-190 is the exact total). In that run of games, only North Dakota on Nov. 9 (25-19) has outshot UMD at even strength.
Ultimately, they count how many pucks cross the goal line, and both ends of that need to improve for the Bulldogs, but the trends seem to indicate that we’re not far off at this point. Sandelin has talked about shaving a goal per game off UMD’s average conceded, which is a lofty goal, but one that appears not out of line with what the fancy stats tell us in terms of the Bulldogs’ improving ability to possess pucks and move north. Even half a goal per game on average would be a huge step in the right direction and likely lead to more positives in the win column.
5. To the surprise of no one, Bulldog captain Dominic James leads the team in scoring. Nine goals and 17 points are both team highs, and James has been a major contributor for the Bulldogs in a lot of different ways. He’s on the top line, he often takes the faceoff to start power plays and penalty kills, too. His 21:15 TOI per game (per CHN) is second to Owen Gallatin (23:19) and first among forwards.
But James is the only UMD veteran to reach double figures in points in the first half. Gallatin (30 points last season) has a goal and eight points at the break. Junior Aiden Dubinsky has three goals and seven points while being the only other UMD player averaging 20-plus minutes of ice time so far at 20:30.
The young guys are pulling their weight and improving as time goes on. Zam Plante struggled for some time while brother Max was out, but he’s been rejuvenated as of late, finishing the first half with four goals and 10 points (three goals and six points in his last five games before break). Jayson Shaugabay has a pair of three-point games and totaled 12 points in the first 15 games. Anthony Menghini is still in Cy Young contention, but he picked up his first assist of the season in Arizona to go along with seven goals. Aaron Pionk has steadied himself defensively and is apparently going for the reverse Cy Young with no goals and 12 assists.
6. But if you want a couple picks to click in the second half, look no further than the older guys. Kyle Bettens has just two assists and has been scratched a couple times, but I thought he played some of his best hockey right before break (his performance in Arizona was noteworthy, even if it wasn’t productive on the scoreboard). Gallatin had what Sandelin termed a “quiet” 30-point junior season, and as the power play gets more and more dialed in, his production there should see an uptick, at the minimum.
And while he’s still only 20, Matthew Perkins seemed snakebit at times in the first half. He has four points (all assists), but is healthy off an injury and, again, I thought he had a strong weekend in Arizona.
If even one of these guys can break out while the young guys keep taking steps, UMD would undoubtedly take it.
7. A three-game week starts for UMD Tuesday in Bemidji. It’s the back end of a home-and-home series that started on Oct. 5 at Amsoil, where Jackson Jutting scored in overtime to give the Beavers a 4-3 win in a very entertaining game.
The Beavers endured an up-and-down first half, finishing 8-8-3 thanks to a 9-5 home loss to Michigan Tech Dec. 14. It was a game that featured eight goals in the third period — six from the Huskies as they erased a 3-2 deficit after two.
In talking about that game, longtime Beavers coach Tom Serratore referenced a 2002 game where UMD beat Bemidji 12-0 at the old John Glas Fieldhouse in Bemidji. It came a night after the Beavers upset UMD 3-2 in overtime at the DECC.
Shots ended up 36-30 UMD, and the Bulldogs blew a 1-0 game wide open with seven goals in the second period. Legendary UMD voice Kerry Rodd must have run out of cassette tapes to clip highlights on that night.
Anyway, here’s what Serratore said about that third period against Tech:
“I don’t know if I’ve ever given up six goals in a period (they did that night against UMD 😁). And we were up 4-3 with 17 minutes to go. I mean, you can’t make some of this stuff up. And it was some bizarre plays. Once in a while you got to play in those crazy games. You just want to make sure you win them. But, we took a nosedive that night and the night before too, we had them (Tech scored with the extra attacker in the Friday game to force overtime before winning in a shootout) and that’s hockey. I try not to get anxiety over some of those games when you lose a lead with 30 seconds ago, or you get, you know, you get pumped 9-5 and you give up six in the third period. It’s just bizarre. I think probably the older I get that, you know, the more I just sit there and shake my head.”
UMD will host Alaska-Fairbanks Friday and Saturday to close out a busy first week back from break.
8. The UMD women have been off since a 3-1 comeback win at St. Cloud State Dec. 7. That put the Bulldogs at an impressive 11-6-3 through the first half of the season under first-year coach Laura Schuler.
While UMD got five of six points at St. Cloud State to create some real distance on the Huskies in the WCHA standings and move into second place in the league, Schuler was still lamenting her own work in the lead-up to the series finale when we had our last media conference with her on Dec. 11.
“I feel like from a coach’s perspective I had them thinking about too many things,” she said. “Consequently, we weren’t playing simple hockey. And once we adjusted to that, I thought our third period was absolutely outstanding, led by our leadership, especially our top line.”
Still workshopping a nickname for Clara Van Wieren, Olivia Mobley, and Olivia Wallin, but that line has been tremendous for the Bulldogs.
“They’re just playing such good hockey. And all three of them complement each other so well. Olivia Mobley just can put the puck in the back of the net. Olivia Wallin is such a playmaker, really sees the ice well. And then Clara, holy smokes. She’s like that workhorse. She’s a 200-foot hockey player. And that third period (the Saturday game), you could really see Clara’s something shifted in her. It was unreal. Watching her gave me chills. And then when you had the three of them connecting like that again, it was just really nice.”
9. Schuler wasn’t about to take credit for her team’s strong start, even though it’s clear she’s doing a really good job so far.
“I’m going to put the onus on our student athletes and just how hard they work each and every day,” she said. “What they continue to do in the weight room and on the ice. And they’ve earned where they’re at right now. It’s going to be really important for us going forward to continue to keep earning it, not let our foot off the gas pedal. Because obviously, there’s some great teams that we have to go up against each and every weekend. So it’s going to be really important that we just keep our pedal to the metal there.”
The Bulldogs host Syracuse Thursday at 2pm and Friday at 3pm at Amsoil. These games make up the postponement from late September, when the Orange couldn’t get to Duluth because of travel issues caused by Hurricane Helene.
Both UMD hockey teams are home to face St. Cloud State next weekend as league play resumes for both.
_______
We’ll be in Bemidji Tuesday night, pregame at 6:30 on KDAL. Likely back here Thursday with some sort of postmortem/Alaska preview type of column.
Happy 2025 in advance. Back on the morning radio beat Thursday, which will be nice after a long time away.
Comments