In full honesty, the Feb. 1 loss at Colorado College was a likely death knell for UMD's Penrose Cup chances.
But a sweep of Denver would have put the Bulldogs within seven points of idle St. Cloud State for the top spot in the NCHC with six games to go. That's not a great spot, but all UMD would have needed was to pick up two points on SCSU over two weeks before the teams go head-to-head in St. Cloud March 8-9, and it would have been a race again.
Now, after a 1-0 loss to Denver Saturday night, UMD is ten points out. That hill became much tougher to climb. In order to have a shot at the outright conference championship, UMD needs to gain five points on St. Cloud State in the next two weekends.
UMD is at North Dakota this weekend, then home for Miami. St. Cloud State plays at Omaha and at Western Michigan.
Impossible? No.
Unlikely? Unfortunately, yes.
The difference Saturday was a Slava Demin goal in the first period. It was the rarest of rare for UMD, a game decided by a possibly regrettable goal. Hunter Shepard was screened and didn't appear to react to the shot until it was already through his five-hole and crossing the goal line.
UMD was held to four shots on goal in the second period, despite two power plays, and couldn't get anything by DU goalie Devin Cooley despite a 13-shot third period surge.
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It was, I thought, one of UMD's better defensive weekends. Denver couldn't generate much in either game, especially over the final five periods of the series. The Pioneers had zone time in the second period Saturday, but only finished with 17 shot attempts (seven blocked) and five shots on goal. UMD owned the puck in the third, leading in shot attempts 21-6.
(UMD blocked 21 total shots in the two-game series, including 14 on Saturday.)
That defensive performance will help this team win games over the big picture. It's still a process, after all, and there was likely more good than bad in that regard despite the even-up result of the series.
That said, you have to score to win, and Cooley has shut out UMD twice in three starts this season (he's perfect in eight of nine periods played against UMD). He's not the first Denver goalie to give the Bulldogs fits (see: Jaillet, Tanner), but it's reasonable to think UMD will need to solve Cooley at some point here.
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Look at the PairWise.
St. Cloud State is No. 1. UMD is third, followed by Denver. Western Michigan sits in ninth.
The NCHC is doing it again.
Also, for funsies, notice that three of the top five teams (St. Cloud, UMD, and No. 5 Minnesota State) are based in Minnesota.
The Bulldogs visit North Dakota this weekend. The Fighting Hawks are No. 21 in the PairWise and trying to battle back toward at-large contention. UND split at Western Michigan last weekend, but more notably
lost starting goalie Adam Scheel
to an injury late in Saturday's game. UND's other main goalie, Peter Thome, has been out since early January, so it's not an ideal situation for Brad Berry's team.
We'll see this week how Scheel and Thome are health-wise. No matter what, UMD needs to be ready for a hard, heavy series against a Fighting Hawks team that continues to play better hockey, even when it isn't getting the results.
